How do you view the current grim situation in tourism?

In this context, many people believe that the epidemic control has restricted travel. The author would like to say that the epidemic control has made some of the "consumption upgrading" and "pseudo rigid demand" return to their original appearance. This is mainly due to the fact that the release of tourism consumption demand of tourists has changed qualitatively compared with previous years under the condition that the epidemic is normalized and the epidemic control measures remain the status quo. For example, before 2019, the tourism consumption demand of middle-class families in a city was once a year for outbound travel, 2-3 times for domestic travel, once a month for peripheral travel, and once a week for leisure consumption in the city. Due to the normalization of the epidemic, school/community control, income decline and other factors, the tourism consumption demand decreased. This reduction is not a stage of suppression, waiting for the release of the seal and then retaliatory consumption, but let consumers form the habit of thinking that it does not matter if they do not travel, it will not have a big impact on life, and ultimately lead to a significant reduction in the willingness to travel consumption and consumption results. Further extending to some other industries, many "rigid demand" created under the bubble economy has gradually been restored to its original form. The most obvious example is the slow sale of real estate in many places under the new environment of "housing and living without speculation", because the ordinary people in the original area do not need so many houses, so there are not so many so-called "rigid demand" for house purchase. The end result of having too much supply is not being able to sell, or sell at what used to be the price.

But is the consumption downgrade comprehensive and irreversible? Not necessarily. At the present stage, the consumption in some fields is still improved, which depends on the real rigidity, irreplaceability, quality and consumption scene of the product. Will some spending recover after the downgrade? Under the background of "no speculation in housing and housing", the real estate market cannot recover to its previous peak, but residents' leisure consumption will slowly recover with the development of the economy, but the cycle will be longer. Therefore, in the next three to five years, the consumption end of tourism is unlikely to produce a big boost. From the perspective of the industry, consumer demand should be carefully anticipated. All business models should be built on the premise that even if the demand is very low, the project will still be alive. Why three to five years, not shorter or longer periods? At present, many industries are in the clearing or basically clearing stage, and the epidemic will probably gradually weaken after the number of infected people in most regions of the world reaches its peak. The restoration of the new order and industrial restructuring will gradually start after that, although it may take five to ten years or even longer for many industries to re-enter the growth cycle. But the return of confidence will come sooner than the real benefits of some industries.